Daily Technical Analysis

Trend

The Swing strategy. Short.
The Alligator strategy. Long.

Warning

Possible Stochastic negative divergence formin .

Overview

Swing Strategy: The daily chart had been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high (SH) followed by a lower swing low (SL) breach which is sufficient information to deduce that EURUSD has reverted to the previous multi month down trend. The price has broken it’s down trend channel. How the swings play out over the next few days will give us further guidance on for broader market bias.

Alligator Strategy:
The Alligator indicator has turned from a neutral to a long bias. The preferred strategy is to buy pullbacks into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame or the break out if the last daily fractal high.

Possible range

The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 94 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3141 and 1.3329.

Long scenario

• Conservative long neutral.
• Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s.

Short scenario

• Conservative short beneath 1.3157 being the last daily fractal low.
• Aggressive short into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame.

Notes

N/A

Risk Disclaimer:

Users of ACFX.COM website and BLOG and any affiliated website note the content of the above analysis or any other information within the website do not at any time provide financial advice. The information is based on historical analysis and for educational purposes only. We recommend readers not to make any investment decision of any sort on the basis of the information above unless prior professional consultation is sought. Trading may not be suitable for all users of this website. Trading CFDs and Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Investors should ensure they fully understand the risks associated with leveraged CFD and FX trading before deciding to trade. Investors should carefully evaluate whether their financial situation is appropriate for such transactions.

Trends

The Swing strategy. Long
The Alligator strategy. Long.

Warning

Price extended from the deferred MA’s and broken the 161.8% fib target. The stochastic has breached its overbought area.
Price action retested and broken the top of its envelope.

Overview

Swing Strategy :
The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lowers since the breach of the 21st December swing high with the 12th March low being seen as a fake break down.

Alligator Strategy:
The Alligator indicator is bullish. As the trend is up, the preferred strategy is to purchase any pull backs into the deferred MA’s or buy break outs of the current daily fractal high.

Possible range

The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 90 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.6129 and 1.6309.

Long scenario

• Conservative long above 1.6300 being the last daily fractal high.
• Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame.

Short scenario

• Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5818 being the last daily fractal.
• Aggressive short into the deferred MA’s.

Notes

Shorts are counter to the prevailing trend.

Risk Disclaimer:

Users of ACFX.COM website and BLOG and any affiliated website note the content of the above analysis or any other information within the website do not at any time provide financial advice. The information is based on historical analysis and for educational purposes only. We recommend readers not to make any investment decision of any sort on the basis of the information above unless prior professional consultation is sought. Trading may not be suitable for all users of this website. Trading CFDs and Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Investors should ensure they fully understand the risks associated with leveraged CFD and FX trading before deciding to trade. Investors should carefully evaluate whether their financial situation is appropriate for such transactions.

Trends

The Swing strategy. Short.
The Alligator strategy. Short.

Warning

A potential Lower High has been confirmed by the breach of the 16th April lows. The stochastic is forming a positive divergence.

Overview

Swing Strategy : The daily chart as defined by a normalized swing count has been choppy for some time prior to this pairs bullish break out with the breach of the 9th September swing high being a warning sign of a potential trend reversal. The subsequent retracement came close to the 50% Fibonacci level. A potential lower high has been confirmed with the breach of the 16th April lows. The swing strategy is technically bearish. The next major Fibonacci support is 78.86 being the 61.8% level of the last major upswing.

Alligator strategy:The Alligator indicator has turned negative. The preferred strategy is to short pull backs into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame or trade the breakdown of the last daily fractal low.

Possible range

The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 0.6286. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 79.4614 and 80.7186.

Long scenario

• Conservative long above 81.68 being the last daily fractal high.
• Aggressive long into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame.

Short scenario

• Conservative short neutral.
• An aggressive short, short pullback into the deferred MA’s in lower time frames.

Notes

There is nothing new to report from previous day’s analysis.

Risk Disclaimer:

Users of ACFX.COM website and BLOG and any affiliated website note the content of the above analysis or any other information within the website do not at any time provide financial advice. The information is based on historical analysis and for educational purposes only. We recommend readers not to make any investment decision of any sort on the basis of the information above unless prior professional consultation is sought. Trading may not be suitable for all users of this website. Trading CFDs and Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Investors should ensure they fully understand the risks associated with leveraged CFD and FX trading before deciding to trade. Investors should carefully evaluate whether their financial situation is appropriate for such transactions.

Trends

The Swing strategy. Neutral.
The Alligator strategy. Short.

Warning

A potential higher low may be forming. The Alligator has turned bearish from neutral. The stochastic has breached its oversold area.

Overview

Swing strategy: The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by USDCHF putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breach of the 21st December swing low. However the 15th March swing high breach could be a warning sign that this short down trend is nothing more than a bullish continuation pattern. The subsequent higher lower of the 2nd April was followed by false swings on the 5th April and 12th April. A break above the 16th April high or 2nd April low will define the direction of the trend.

Alligator strategy: The Alligator indicator has turned bearish from neutral.

Possible range

The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 69 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.9010 and 0.9148.

Long scenario

• Conservative long above 0.9133 being the last daily fractal high.
• Aggressive long into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frames.

Short scenario

• Conservative scenario neutral.
• Aggressive short pullbacks into the deferred MA’s.

Notes

There is nothing new to report from previous day’s analysis.

Risk Disclaimer:

Users of ACFX.COM website and BLOG and any affiliated website note the content of the above analysis or any other information within the website do not at any time provide financial advice. The information is based on historical analysis and for educational purposes only. We recommend readers not to make any investment decision of any sort on the basis of the information above unless prior professional consultation is sought. Trading may not be suitable for all users of this website. Trading CFDs and Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Investors should ensure they fully understand the risks associated with leveraged CFD and FX trading before deciding to trade. Investors should carefully evaluate whether their financial situation is appropriate for such transactions.